Lieutenant Governor Bill Hobby. Congresswoman Barbara Jordan. Congressman Mickey Leland – three Texas legends who dedicated their lives to serving the Lone Star State.

Their political careers were in full swing in the early 1970s when the Texas population was smaller and less diverse. They had a common goal: to create a better state for everyone.

In the spirit of these Texas political pioneers, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Executive Master of Public Administration Program in the Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University launched the Texas Trends Survey, a five-year project to study Texas’s changing population and opinions, in 2021. The data from the annual surveys and reports will be shared with policymakers, business and community leaders, academics and the public. With objective data, decision-makers throughout the state will be equipped to determine the best routes leading to a better Texas for everyone.

The 2025 Texas Trends survey was fielded between September 19 and October 1, 2025 and focused on opinions about the 2026 elections, public policies and energy use. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish, with 1,650 YouGov respondents 18 years of age and older, resulting in a confidence interval of +/-2.41% for the overall survey population. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education and are representative of the Texas registered voter population. 

The results of the 2025 statewide survey will be presented in four separate reports covering the following topics: select races in the 2026 Texas Republican and Democratic primaries and the November 2026 U.S. Senate election as well as support for President Donald Trump; immigration and border security; legislation passed during the 2025 Texas Legislature’s second special session including redistricting; and Texas household energy use and concerns.

Report One. Texas Trends Survey: Election 2026

The first report of the Texas Trends 2025 series examines vote intention in the state’s 2026 Republican and Democratic U.S. Senate primaries, vote intention in the November 2026 U.S. Senate election, changes in the level of support among Texas voters for President Donald Trump, and vote intention in the 2026 Republican Texas Attorney General primary.

Highlights

• In the 2026 Texas primary race for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate, the vote intention of likely primary voters is 34% for Ken Paxton, 33% for John Cornyn and 22% for Wesley Hunt, with 11% unsure.

• While 94% and 90% of Republican primary voters know enough about Paxton and Cornyn to have an opinion of them, only 69% know enough about Hunt to have an opinion of him.
• 50% of Republican primary voters say they would be more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed U.S. Senate candidate in the GOP primary, while 10% would be less likely and 40% say a Trump endorsement would have no impact on their vote decision.
• The vote intention in the primary race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate has 46% of likely voters casting a ballot for Colin Allred and 42% for James Talarico, with 12% unsure.

• Vote intention in a four-candidate 2026 Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary election is 31% for Jasmine Crockett, 25% for James Talarico, 25% for Beto O’Rourke and 13% for Colin Allred, with 6% of likely primary voters unsure. Neither Crockett nor O’Rourke have formally entered the race.
• In the 2026 Republican Texas Attorney General primary, the vote intention of likely primary voters is 40% for Chip Roy, 12% for Joan Huffman, 8% for Aaron Reitz and 3% for Mayes Middleton, with 37% unsure how they would vote in this contest.
• In the 2026 Republican Texas Attorney General primary, 36% of Republican primary voters don’t know enough about Chip Roy to have an opinion about voting for him, while 65% don’t know enough about Mayes Middleton, 63% about Aaron Reitz, and 58% about Joan Huffman.
• 56% of Republican primary voters say they would be more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General candidate in the GOP primary, while 8% would be less likely and 36% say a Trump endorsement would have no impact on their vote decision.
• While 56% of the survey respondents said they voted for President Donald Trump in 2024, 49% said they would do the same today. The drop was almost twice as large among Latinos who voted for Trump, from 53% in 2024 to 41% who would vote for him today. 

Read Report One to learn more about where likely Texas voters stand on 2026 candidates and President Trump, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age, race/ethnicity and partisanship.

Media Release, October 9, 2025