Texas Votes 2024
Will Texas remain a Republican stronghold in 2024? With 40 U.S. Electoral College votes on the line, Texas is a must-win state for the Republican Party to regain the White House. Who is leading in the presidential race in Texas, and what issues are influencing voters’ decisions? Meanwhile, with control of the U.S. Senate up for grabs, the Democratic Party hopes to capture a U.S. Senate seat in Texas to hold on to their majority. And Harris County, the nation’s third largest county, has a number of positions on the ballot – will Democrats continue their county-wide dominance? To answer these questions and more, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted an online statewide survey of likely voters in Texas, with an oversample of Harris County voters, between Sept. 26 and Oct. 10, 2024. The statewide survey was fielded in English and Spanish with 1,329 YouGov respondents, resulting in a confidence interval of +/-2.69%. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and partisanship, and they are representative of the population of Texas registered voters.
The Texas Votes 2024 study includes four reports. The first report focuses on the statewide races for president, U.S. Senate and the Texas Railroad Commission, along with issues influencing vote intention and candidate favorability. Forthcoming reports will cover Harris County elections, election integrity and administration, and attitudes about electricity infrastructure and distribution in Harris County.
Report 1. Texas Votes 2024: Statewide Races, Issues & Favorability
The Presidential Race
President Donald Trump leads challenger Kamala Harris, 50.0% and 44.7% respectively. Other candidates combine for 2.7% and another 2.7% are undecided.
Trump holds a 15 percentage point lead over Harris among men (56% to 41%), while Harris holds a 5 percentage point lead over Trump among women (51% to 46%).
Trump and Harris are in a head heat among Latino voters, 48% to 47%, respectively.
Trump and Harris have relatively equal proportions of likely voters with a favorable (50% and 49%) and unfavorable (50% and 51%) evaluation of them, with Trump having a slightly higher proportion of likely voters with a very favorable opinion of him (38% to 34%).
66% of likely voters say the economy is one of the three most important issues influencing their presidential vote decision, followed by immigration & border security (50%) and the future of U.S. democracy (39%).
44% of likely voters believe their personal financial situation is worse today than it was four years ago, while 31% believe it is better and 25% think it is the same.
62% of likely voters believe things in the United States is on the wrong track, while 31% believe they are headed in the right direction.
The U.S. Senate Race
In the Texas U.S. Senate race, Republican Ted Cruz (50%) leads Democrat Colin Allred (46%) by four percentage points, with 3% undecided and 1% intending to vote for Libertarian Ted Brown.
Cruz holds a 15 percentage point lead over Allred among men (56% to 41%), while
Allred holds a 7 percentage point lead over Cruz among women (51% to 44%).
Allred (48%) and Cruz (45%) are deadlocked among Latino likely voters.
62% of the members of the Silent Generation/Baby Boomer cohort intend to vote for Cruz and 37% for Allred. In contrast, 62% of Generation Z intend to vote for Allred, and 36% for Cruz.
Cruz is viewed favorably by a slightly higher proportion of likely voters than Allred (50% to 46%), but is also viewed unfavorably by a higher proportion of likely voters than Allred (48% vs. 42%).
Other Highlights
In the Texas Railroad Commissioner race, Republican Christi Craddick (48%) leads Democrat Katherine Culbert (41%) by seven percentage points. 8% are undecided, 2% intend to vote for Libertarian Hawk Dunlap and 1% for the Green Party’s Eddie Espinoza.
50% of likely voters believe things in Texas are off on the wrong track, while 41% believe they are headed in the right direction.
59% of likely voters report they plan to vote early in person, 32% plan to vote on election day, 8% plan to vote early via mail (absentee ballot) and 1% are unsure how they are going to vote.
Read Report 1 to learn more about where Texans stand on the 2024 General Election candidates and issues, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and partisanship.
Media Release October 15, 2024
Research Team
Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director & Researcher, Hobby School of Public Affairs
Mark P. Jones, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's Fellow in Political Science, Rice University; Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs
Maria P. Perez Argüelles, Research Associate, Hobby School of Public Affairs
Savannah Sipole, Research Associate, Hobby School of Public Affairs
Additional Texas Election Reports
Texas Trends Survey: General Election 2024
Texas Trends Survey: A Second Look at the 2024 Election
Texas Democratic Primary Election 2020 Survey
The Texas Voter ID Law and the 2016 Election: A Study of Harris County and Congressional District 23
The Texas Voter ID Law and the 2014 Election: A Study of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District