Texas Congressional District 18 has played a historic role in the political history of the Lone Star state. As a result of the Voting Rights Act and the 1970 Census, the first Black congressional district in Houston — Texas District 18 — was established in 1972. This newly drawn seat propelled Congresswoman Barbara Jordan to the national stage, followed by Congressmen Mickey Leland (1979- 1989) and Craig Washington (1989 – 1995).  Congresswoman Shelia Jackson Lee was the longest serving official to represent the district, from 1995 until her death in 2024. Her daughter Erica Lee Carter completed her term after winning a special election, while former Houston mayor Sylvester Turner won the 2024 general election and was inaugurated in 2025. Due to the unexpected death of Congressman Turner in March 2025, a special election was called by Governor Greg Abbott to be held in November 2025. 

Without a primary election to determine party nominees, multiple candidates of all parties are eligible to be on the special election ballot. And while Texas District 18 is considered a dark blue Democratic district, 16 candidates are in the race including Democrats, Republicans, Independents and a Green Party member. Who has emerged as the frontrunners? Do favorability ratings differ among the top contenders? Will the sheer number of special election candidates spur a runoff election, and if so, who will compete in a two-candidate race in early 2026? What policy areas are of top concern?

To address these questions, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a survey of voters who are likely to participate in the November 2025 Texas Congressional District 18 special election. The survey was fielded between October 7 and October 11, 2025 by contacting registered voters who live in Texas’s 18th Congressional District via SMS text messages through which they were directed to an online survey platform with the option to answer the survey in English or Spanish. Representative of voters who are likely to participate in the November 2025 special election, the analysis population of 1,200 has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.

Highlights

The vote intention among likely voters in the November 2025 Texas Congressional District 18 special election is as follows: 27% for Christian Menefee (D), 23% for Amanda Edwards (D), 15% for Jolanda Jones (D), 6% for Carmen Maria Montiel (R), 4% for George Foreman IV (I), 4% for Isaiah Martin (D), 3% for Carter Page (R), 2% for Ronald Whitfield (R) and 1% for Theodis Daniel (R), with 2% divided among the seven other candidates and 13% undecided.

The survey findings strongly suggest that no candidate will win more than 50% of the vote on November 4, resulting in a second-round runoff. In hypothetical 2026 runoffs between different pairs of the top three projected finishers in November, the vote intention is as follows:

• Menefee (36%) leads Edwards (34%), with 20% unsure and 10% not voting.
• Menefee (43%) leads Jones (26%), with 19% unsure and 12% not voting.
• Edwards (44%) leads Jones (26%), with 19% unsure and 11% not voting.

Democratic voters give Menefee a slight edge, at 35%, followed by 28% for Edwards and 18% for Jones, with 11% undecided.

Republicans support Montiel with 23% of the vote, followed by 10% for Page and 10% for Edwards, with 21% undecided.

A majority of Texas District 18 likely voters have a favorable opinion of Amanda Edwards (62%), Christian Menefee (59%) and Jolonda Jones (51%).

44% of the likely special election voters believe that civil rights and civil liberties is the most important issue facing the country today, followed by jobs and the economy (13%), health care (12%), inflation/prices (11%), taxes and government spending (7%), immigration (7%), national security and foreign policy (3%) and climate change and the environment (3%).

In the dark blue 18th Congressional District, 72% of the survey respondents have a favorable opinion of Congressman Al Green, 61% a favorable opinion of Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia and 55% a favorable opinion of Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher.

Read the report to learn more about where Texas District 18 likely voters stand on the candidates and issues, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age, race/ethnicity and partisanship.

Media Release, October 16, 2025

Texas Congressional District 18 Special Election Survey, July 2025 

Primary Investigators

Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director; Researcher, Hobby School of Public Affairs 

Mark P. Jones, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's Fellow in Political Science, Rice University; Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs

Research Team

Maria Perez Arguelles, Research Assistant Professor, Hobby School of Public Affairs

Savannah Sipole, Research Associate, Hobby School of Public Affairs 

Communications Team

Diana Benitez, Program Director, Web & Graphic Design, Hobby School of Public Affairs

Cordova, Executive Director of Communications, Hobby School of Public Affairs

Jeannie Kever, Communications Consultant

Celeste Zamora, Communications Manager, Hobby School of Public Affairs