Harris County is the largest and most diverse county in the Lone Star State. Once a Republican stronghold, Harris County has been reliably blue in recent election cycles. With county-wide, state and congressional races on the ballot, many eyes are on the decisions being made by the county’s Democratic voters. With approximately one out of every six votes cast statewide in the 2024 Democratic primary election, Harris County Democratic voters will have a substantial say in their party’s U.S. Senate nominee.

To identify Harris County’s Democratic primary voters’ candidate preferences and opinions, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a representative survey of Harris County registered voters likely to vote in the March 5, 2024 Democratic primary election. The online survey, available in English and Spanish, was fielded between February 7 and February 15, 2024. The survey population of 1,400 has a margin of error of +/- 2.5%.

The data from this survey along with additional legislative district-specific data that were collected will be presented in a series of three reports. The first report examines the vote intention of likely voters for the Harris County Democratic primaries for district attorney, sheriff, county attorney, tax assessor-collector, and Texas U.S. senator. The second report focuses on the vote intention of likely voters in the Democratic primaries for Texas Congressional Districts 7 and 18, Texas State Senate District 15, and Texas State House Districts 139, 142 and 146. The final report explores evaluations of local Democratic political figures by Harris County Democratic primary voters.

Report 1. County & U.S. Senate

Highlights

District Attorney: 59% of likely voters intend to vote for Sean Teare and 21% for incumbent Kim Ogg, with 20% undecided.

County Sheriff: 63% of likely Harris County Democratic primary voters intend to vote for incumbent Ed Gonzalez for Harris County Sheriff, while 5% support one of the other three candidates. 32% are undecided.

County Attorney: 41% of likely Harris County Democratic voters intend to vote for incumbent Christian Menefee in the race for Harris County Attorney, with 7% supporting Umeka “UA” Lewis. 52% are undecided.

County Tax Assessor-Collector: 67% of likely voters remain undecided in the Harris County Democratic primary election for Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector, while 12% intend to vote for Annette Ramirez, 7% for Danielle Keys Bess, 6% for Jerry Davis, 5% for Desiree Broadnax and 3% for Claude Cummings III.

U.S. Senate: 66% of Harris County likely Democratic primary voters intend to vote for Colin Allred in the U.S. Senate primary election, followed by Roland Gutierrez (7%) and Mark Gonzalez (2%), with 22% undecided.

Read Report 1 to learn more about where likely Harris County Democratic primary voters stand on the 2024 primary election candidates for county-wide positions and the U.S. Senate, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age and race/ethnicity.

Media Release February 20, 2024

Report 2. U.S. Congress, Texas Senate & Texas House

Highlights

U.S. Congressional District 7: 78% of likely Democratic primary voters intend to vote for U.S. Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, while 11% support Pervez Agwan. 11% of likely Democratic primary voters are unsure.

U.S. Congressional District 18: U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee holds a 5 percentage point lead in vote intention over Amanda Edwards, 43% to 38%, with 3% intending to vote for Robert Slater.  16% of likely Democratic primary voters are unsure.

Texas Senate District 15: Frontrunners for Texas Senate District 15 include Jarvis Johnson (18%), Molly Cook (18%), and Todd Litton (14%), followed by Alberto Cardenas (6%), Karthik Soora (5%) and Michelle Anderson Bonton (2%). 37% of likely Democratic primary voters are unsure.

Texas House District 139:  Rosalind Ceasar has 12% of the vote, followed by Angie Thibodeaux, 10%; Charlene Ward Johnson, 8%; and Mo Jenkins and Jerry Ford, each with 4%. 62% of likely Democratic primary voters remain unsure.

Texas House District 142: State Rep. Harold Dutton is leading with 38% of the vote, followed by Danyahel (Danny) Norris, 7%; and Joyce Marie Chatman and Clint Dan Horn, each with 6%. 43% of likely Democratic primary voters are unsure.

Texas House District 146: 40% of likely Democratic primary voters plan to vote for State Rep. Shawn Thierry for Texas House District 146, while 16% support Lauren Ashley Simmons and 4% support Ashton Woods. 40% of likely Democratic primary voters remain unsure.

Note: Sample sizes vary in the district races. Refer to the report for specific populations and margins of error.

Read Report 2 to learn more about where likely Harris County Democratic primary voters stand on the 2024 primary election candidates for select congressional and state legislative positions, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age and race/ethnicity.

Media Release February 22, 2024

Report 3. Evaluations of Harris County Democratic Political Figures

Highlights

The six Harris County Democratic political figures who are viewed favorably by the highest proportion of Harris County likely Democratic primary voters who know enough about them to have an opinion are Teneshia Hudspeth (95%), Chris Hollins (95%), Christian Menefee (94%), Lesley Briones (94%), Al Green (93%) and Ed Gonzalez (90%).

The six Harris County Democratic political figures who are viewed unfavorably by the highest proportion of Harris County likely Democratic primary voters who know enough about them to have an opinion are Kim Ogg (68%), Sheila Jackson Lee (39%), John Whitmire (28%), Borris Miles (26%), Sylvester Turner (23%) and Carla Wyatt (19%).

The four political figures with the highest net favorability ratings (percentage favorable minus percentage unfavorable) are Al Green (77%), Lina Hidalgo (68%), Ed Gonzalez (67%) and Annise Parker (67%).

The proportion of Harris County likely Democratic primary voters in the respective congressional districts of the Houston region’s four Democratic U.S. House members who have a favorable opinion of their representative in Congress are 93% (Lizzie Fletcher), 87% (Al Green), 81% (Sylvia Garcia) and 62% (Sheila Jackson Lee).

Read Report 3 to learn more about Harris County Democratic primary voters’ evaluations of local Democratic political figures, including differences of opinion when considering gender, age and race/ethnicity.

Research Co-Investigators

Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director & Researcher, Hobby School of Public Affairs

Mark P. Jones, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy's Fellow in Political Science, Rice University; Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs 

Research Team

Maria P. Perez Argüelles, Research Associate, Hobby School of Public Affairs

Savannah Sipole, Research Associate, Hobby School of Public Affairs

Agustín Vallejo, Post-Doctoral Fellow, Hobby School of Public Affairs