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Lachman, R. (1998). Artificial Intelligence,
Decision Science, and Psychological Theory in Decisions about
People: A Case Study in Jury Selection. AI Magazine, 19, 111-129.
Abstract
AI theory and its technology is rarely consulted
in attempted resolutions of social problems. Solutions often require that
decision analytic techniques be combined with expert systems. The emerging
literature on combined systems are directed at domains where the prediction
of human behavior is not required. A foundational shift in AI presuppositions
to intelligent agents working in collaboration provides an opportunity to
explore efforts to improve the performance of social institutions that depend
on accurate prediction of human behavior. Professionals concerned with human
outcomes make decisions that are intuitive or analytic or some combination
of both. The relative efficacy of each decision type is described. Justifications
and methodology are presented for combining analytic and intuitive agents
in an expert system that supports professional decision making. Psychological
grounds for the allocation of functions to agents are reviewed. Jury selection,
the prototype domain, is described as a process typical of others that, at
their core, require the prediction of human behavior. The domain is used
to demonstrate the formal components, steps in construction, and challenges
of developing and testing a hybrid system based on the allocation of function.
The principle that the research taught us about the allocation of function
is "the rational and predictive primacy of a statistical agent to an intuitive
agent in construction of a production system". We learned that the reverse
of this principle is appropriate for identifying and classifying human responses
to questions and generally dealing with unexpected events in a courtroom
and elsewhere. This principle and approach should be paradigmatic of the
class of collaborative models that capitalizes on the unique strengths of
AI knowledge-based systems. The methodology used in the courtroom is described
along with the history of the project and implications for the development
of related AI systems. Empirical data are reported that portend the possibility
of impressive predictive ability in the combined approach relative to other
current approaches. Problems encountered and those remaining are discussed
including the limits of empirical research and standards of validation. The
system presented demonstrates the challenges and opportunities inherent in
developing and using AI collaborative technology to solve social problems.
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Lachman, R. (1989). Expert systems: A Cognitive
science perspective. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments and Computers,
21, 195-204.
Abstract
The theory and technology of Knowledge Based
Systems are intrinsically interdisciplinary and closely related to the formalisms
of cognitive psychology. Strategies of incorporating intelligence in a computer
program are described along with a common architecture for expert systems,
including choices of representation and inferential methods. The history of
the field istraced from its origins in metamathematics and Newell and Simon's
GPS to the Stanford Heuristic Programming Project that produced DENDRAL and
MYCIN. MYCIN gave rise to EMYCIN and a shell technology that has radically
reduced the development time and cost of expert systems. Methodology and
concepts are illustrated by transactions with a shell developed for graduate
education and a demonstration knowledge base for the diagnosis of senile
dementia. Knowledge-based systems and conventional programs are compared
with respect to formalisms employed, applications, program characteristics,
procedures supplied by the development environment, consistency, certainty,
flexibility and programmer's viewpoint. The technology raises basic questions
for cognitive psychology concerning knowledge and expertise.
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Lachman, R. (1998). Imposed Intelligibility and
Strong Claims Concerning What Cognitive Systems Are. The Behavioral and
Brain Sciences, 21, (forthcoming).
Abstract
CH was formulated with due concern for limits
and is consistent with imposed intelligibility doctrines. Theories are scientific
work products that impose human classifications and formalisms on nature.
The claim "cognitive agents are dynamical systems" is untenable. Dynamical
formalisms imposed on a natural system, given an approximate fit, serve as
an explanatory framework and render a represented system predictable and
intelligible.
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Lachman, R. (1989). On-line reading and comprehension
aids for expository text. Human Factors, 31, 1-15.
Abstract
A chapter of expository text was presented
on a CRT with optional "windowing" of definitions of selected words varying
in relevance to each screen's main ideas. A test treatment was interposed
to influence reading strategies. Dependent variables included text reading
time, frequency of definition "calls", definition reading rates, and scores
on a final comprehension test. Results indicate that a technical chapter
can be read from a CRT with appreciable content retention. Subjects accessed
80% of available definitions but those able to "call" content relevant definitions
increased their frequency of definition "calls". Definition reading rate diminished,
comprehension and processing time increased only for subjects accessing the
theoretically relevant definitions. The results suggest how to use definitions
to enhance the comprehension of on-line training manuals, texts, and hypertext
screens. "Callable" definitions need not include all low-frequency technical
concepts but only those relevant to reductive main ideas.
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