Congressional Elections

Primary Goal: Reelection.

• activities geared toward reelection

Incumbency Advantage.

• Win more often

• Win more easily

slight erosion in past few elections

Reelection Rates still around 90%

Sources of Incumbency Advantage

Personal Vote

• constituency service
• home style (Fenno, 1974)

Incumbents’ Resources

• TV and Sound studio
• Franking
• Staffs and Offices
• Travel Allowances

David Mayhew Congress: The Electoral Connection (1974)

1) claim credit

2) position taking

3) Advertising

District Characteristics

Apportionment (Gerrymandering?)

How to Beat and Incumbent

1. Name Recognition

2. Quality Challenger

• held previous elected office

3. $$$

• $600,000 needed to run competitive campaign

Senate Elections

More competitive than House races

Smaller Incumbency Advantage

1. states vs. congressional districts

• homogeneity

2. stronger challengers

• i.e. quality challengers
• better funded challengers

3. increased coverage of race.

Vote Choice

Important Determinants of vote choice

1. Party ID

2. Candidate Characteristics

3. Issues

I. PID

Best predictor of vote choice

Trends in PID and Voting

• Dealignment
• Split Ticket Voting

Importance of PID

• It shapes impressions
• perceptual screens

II. Candidate Characteristics

• personality
• experience
• past records (reputation)
• appearance

Athletes, Actors and Astronauts

Increasingly important with decline of party

III. Issues

=> Policy views of candidates

=> Success/failure of existing policies

Fiorina and Peterson – Importance of Issues possibly overstated

Congressional Elections

Voter Turnout (ERIKSON & FRANKLIN)

Turnout & Party Decline

• Australian Ballot
• Competitiveness
• Larger Pool of Voters
• Candidate Self-Selection

Factors that Influence Turnout

Registration

• Varies by State

· Responsibility individual voters

• Effect on Turnout Noticeable

Campaigns

• political parties/candidates
• interest groups

Does turnout matter?

Conventional Wisdom

· Higher turnout helps Democrats.

Implications for Democratic Governance

Should we Worry?

Yes

• Increased Cynicism, Threat to Legitimacy

No

• Voting is Irrational.
• Good for disinterested to stay home

Election Cycles & Congressional Elections

Presidential vs. Midterm Elections

· Surge and Decline

· Coattails

· Decline of Party