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Although humans have some basic abilities in reasoning about probabilities,
on the whole, people seem "blind" to many of the fundamentals.
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One disturbing error that humans are prone to is to judge probability without
properly considering the base rate . For example, given a disease
which infects one thousandth of the population, and a test with a false
positive rate of 5%, they badly overestimate the likelihood that a person
with a positive test has the disease. (The correct answer is that only
2% of such people have the disease.) We worked through the reasoning in
class. People are very poor at judging how important the low basis rate
of the disease (the overall probability that people have it) is in determining
your odds of having it.
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Tversky and Kahneman are famous for showing incorrectness in human
probability judgements. Most people get the following task wrong.
Linda went to college and was involved in leftist political organizations.
Which is more likely?
They answer that 2 is more likely, even though as a matter of logic,
A and B must be less likely than A . Tversky and Kahneman suggest that
the salience or memorability of an event, and reasoning according to stereotypes
are two factors that help explain the bad performance.
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Pinker points out that our poor ability in probability judgements is a
reason that we make poor political choices. Atomic explosions are memorable,
while coal dust explosions are old hat. So we worry about the dangers to
the public of atomic power all out of proportion to the actual threat,
and even though the overall risk for coal power exceeds that for atomic
power.
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Pinker also points out a mental trick that can help overcome our problems
in judging probabilities. By describing the problems in term of frequencies
rather than the probability of single events, human reasoning abilities
are improved.