Missed Detections: From Data to Actionable Estimates Dennis Egan, Ph.D., CCICADA, A DHS COE
Synopsis
Rutgers University will extend formal tools of data science, adapting techniques from ecology and operations research. The resulting insights into missed detections will help CBP and other agencies assess and document performance; get early warning of change; assess trends in a timely fashion
The research will use synthetic data on interdictions, recidivism, and on effort, by
Simple capture-recapture models have already been applied in this context, and underlie some Border Patrol metrics. The currently employed “naïve” Capture-Recapture models assume that all apprehended persons try again, and are as likely to be caught
The DEA method arose in governmental and non-profit settings where multiple “
Presentations and Reports
Presentation | 2017 PI Meeting
Poster | 2017 BTI Institute Showcase
Technical Report | Report on Deterrence: Summary and Sources
Technical Report | Report on Selected Data Sources
Technical Report | Report on Aggregating Imperfect Estimates of several key variables
Technical Report | Estimating Missed Detections by Combining Diverse 1 Sources: Algorithms Missed Detections Working Report-002
Technical Report |Estimating Missed Detections: A "Two Types" Model. Missed Detections Working Report ECR-003